Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
